Our New 2012 Series Begins Today – And In Case You Were Not Aware – The Road To The Apocalypse Has Already Begun!

First off – Let me say this right off the bat. I am not a believer in the world ending on December 21, 2012. I do however get asked a lot of questions about 2012, and though far from an expert on anything to do with this date, I’m just not a believer that it marks the end of anything more than an era or place in time.

Now this may seem somewhat contradictory, but it’s really not. What does worry me about this day and event is that it could become a self fulfilling prophecy. That is, if enough people are worried about it, take action on it, it could have an impact. I still think this is unlikely, but I would not say impossible.

There is still about a year and four months plus until December 21, 2012 and I will be using this time to discuss and point out some of the theories of what could happen, how people are preparing for it, and the “experts” on 2012. Since I am not an expert on 2012, the Mayan Calendar, or other 2012 events, I’ll be pointing you to the people I think are experts.

I will say that even though I am not a believer in the world coming to an end on this date, I think it goes without saying we certainly live in interesting times that could cause an apocalyptic event. Food shortages, drug shortages, unprecedented civil unrest, wars, rumors of war, and I am sure you know where I am going with that.

In any case let me know introduce you to someone named Carl Johan Calleman, who is somewhat of a believer in the Mayan end date. However, there is a slight twist since Carl Calleman does not believe in the traditional end date, but that the end will come on October 28, 2011. Furthermore, Calleman believes that we have already entered the beginning of the end starting on August 18, 2011.

You can read more about August 18, 2011 at Before It’s News in an article titled: Today Begins 18 Days of Destruction According To The Mayan Calendar. By the same token I would also recommend reading about Carl Johan Calleman on 2012hoax.org as well.

If you care to look into Calleman’s theories you can do so directly on his site Calleman.com



Toyota Announces They Will Shut Down North American Factories

Facing a parts shortage due to last month’s earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Toyota announced earlier today that they will likely shut North American factories.

The shutdown is said to be temporary, but also unknown is for how long the shutdown will last, and will affect about 25,000 workers here in the United States. All of which depends on how quickly the Japanese auto parts makers can get back to business.

Honda Motor Co. and Subaru of America also stated they would slow U.S. production to conserve parts as well.

Production of certain parts are not expected to resume for at least 30 days in a company memo to dealers and added, "Both the number of affected parts and length of production stoppage may increase."

The disaster in Japan, although exceptional in scope and size is an example how vulnerable our supply chains are. In our globalized world, everything is tied together and companies MUST do a better job at redistributing the risk of their supply chains, and it needs to happen quickly.

Large scale regional natural disasters are also tied to the globalized economy and this one will likely impact the overall recovery of the American economy which will further impacting the global economy yet again.  

Ironically, in the January copy of Reinsurance Magazine the article – World Cannot Take Another Crisis Global Leaders Warned and it points to the need to “solve future global risks before they become crises” and that “Twentieth century systems are failing to manage 21^st century risks.” More can and should be done to manage our risks.

Government of Barbados and other Caribbean Nations Consider Mandating Business Continuity Plans

The recommendation comes from consultant, Bob Turnbull, a business continuity management expert who has spent time in the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Africa.

The mandate would be for all companies regardless of size, and is an effort to ensure that resilience is built into the supply chains of these businesses. The call for the mandate comes at a time when business preparedness issues are highlighted due to the various and recent series of natural catastrophes around the world.

The mandate for the Caribbean Nations would put them ahead of many others, including the United States in calling for mandatory business contingency plans not just for large companies or critical infrastructure, but for all businesses regardless of size.

 As I mentioned in a previous posting, many calls are coming for increased business continuity and I expect this to be a continuing trend for much of 2011. What most businesses need to understand is that great business continuity is not a once in a while or sometimes thing or even an exercise to do one a year. Planning is not a product, but a process that should be improved upon and changed as your business changes.

One Crisis Often Leads To Another – Lessons From A Recent, Real World Incident

One of the better recent examples of how one crisis often leads to another is with BP and the incident in the Gulf with the Deep Water Horizon platform.

As most people are aware, the first crisis occurred when the blow out preventer failed leading to other explosions, fires and the oil leak (though some may say the first crisis occurred when certain protocols where not followed).

The massive oil leak lasted for months, leading to the additional crisis of how to handle the clean up and cap the unprecedented leak at depth.

The large oil spill in turn lead to the loss of income to businesses in parts of the Gulf and Congressional hearings forcing BP to take further action of setting up funds to reimburse losses.

The size and scope of the incident lead to questions from the media, along with public statements from BP which lead to a significant PR crisis for the company. Most would say this was handled very poorly by BP.    

The reimbursement process required BP to gather information from people who were claiming a loss. As of this morning it has been announced that BP has lost a laptop containing 13,000 names and personal information, including social security numbers of those filing claims with the company.

As you can see, once a crisis starts it can be difficult to stop the dominos from falling in other areas, even over the long term. One way to get in front of a crisis, and preventing a potential domino effect is to implement effective planning prior to an incident, along with training and discussions among your leadership team has to how potential crisis’s and incidents will be handled.



Calls for More Business Continuity Planning After Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

Whenever a major disaster occurs, calls for better planning usually follow as we are now seeing after the earthquake and Tsunami in Japan. And, what so often happens, one disaster gives way to or creates another as with the nuclear plant issues following the natural disaster. 

There is a lot we can learn from Japan as one of the best prepared nations in the world when it comes to preparedness and planning for natural catastrophe. The first of which should be no matter how well you plan or prepare ahead of time, something unexpected or catastrophic can still occur, and the need to be flexible in your planning and using your contingency plan as a tool box as opposed to a rigid set of ordered procedures that should be followed is extremely important.

One of the unfortunate things that happen over time especially in the business world is that this type of planning quickly becomes un-important. Even more so during tough economic times as the recent global financial troubles, contingency planning was one of the first things to go.

While I appreciate the calls for better preparedness and I do agree with those calls, proper planning must consist of a continually ongoing process. Planning itself is a process and not a product or something you can do once and put it on a shelf.

Here are just some of the links to recent stories calling for better planning, preparedness and disaster recovery.

Do You Have a Disaster Recovery or Emergency Plan?

Need for Business Continuity Plans

Emergency Planning Crucial in Disaster Recovery

One last thing, while planning is great, it is still not enough. Make sure you incorporate tabletop or other exercises to test and run through your plan and look for gaps and opportunities for improvement.