Want to know the top three things that scare me?

The Top Three Disasters That Scare Me

As a prepper and a preparedness professional there are still things that scare me. Few things do, but there are some things that even if you’re prepared for can still be a nightmare. What are those three things? I’ll tell you.

1. A Pandemic (sorry but this one COVID-19 Isn’t it – I’ll explain why).
2. A HEMP (High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse).
3. Civil Unrest (Civil War).

Pandemic

Coronavirus

Yes, a pandemic scares me. I watched as this one unfolded in China and eventually spread around the globe. I watch China and other parts of Asia for potential outbreaks because throughout history, most of the diseases have started in China and Asia before spreading.

The good news – I saw this one coming as it was evident China was unable to control the spread. The Bad news – the official news coming out of China and the WHO (World Health Organization) was unreliable and untrust worthy.  The only thing I knew for certain was that there was no way SARS-CoV-2 wasn’t airborne and that it was being spread human-to-human during a time when both China and WHO denied this. I made this conjecture due to the amount of video evidence e leaking out of China.

With this I started asking polls on Twitter – (not exactly reliable, but I was able to get what I was looking for). I was mostly asking:

1. Have you made any changes to your routine based on the Coronavirus?
2. Has your company made any changes or implemented any pandemic planning based on the Coronavirus?

While not a scientific poll I can tell you this. Only a very small handful of respondents to the poll started changing up their own routines. And, zero respondents stated the organizations they worked at started implementing any changes. I asked these questions back on January 27, 2020. I also started asking how prepared you were for Supply Chain disruptions on this date.

On February 5^th I commented cracks in the global supply Chain were starting to show already. The next day, Qualcomm warned that the outbreak would impact the smartphone industry. Businesses like Nike, Adidas, and Tesla already reported that they were being impacted from China based exports of supplies.

China also invoked their Force-Majeure (unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract) contract clause on their LNG contracts and refused delivery.

As of January, 21^th the U.S. reported their first official confirmed case. Three days later January 24^th the U.S. confirmed its 2^nd known case. The point here is, I was one of the few people that watched this unfold from the beginning and I was telling people to dust off and look at their Pandemic Plans or get started creating one on January 22^nd.

One of the things that was hard to know (and still know) was the death toll or mortality rate coming out of China. There is still some disturbing information around this, such as the 2 million drop of Chinese phone subscribers. Phones are used for extensive tracking in China, including the need to access government resources like healthcare.

With the unconfirmed and unreliable data coming out of China it appeared that the mortality rate was high. This could still be the case, but it is nearly impossible to confirm at this point, and we may never know the truth when it comes to China.

What we did and do know now is, it spreads easily and quickly, and asymptomatic people can be infected and spread it without ever knowing they had it. But the mortality rate remains very low. Even if you are infected you have a better than 98% chance of surviving. It is this reason alone that I am not too worried about COVID-19.

It’s still too early to tell in the long-term if this will change. As there could be a significant mutation that makes it more deadly, or a second more significant wave causes an increased mortality rate. Though it is unlikely the disease will become more deadly.

Ultimately the reason why I said this isn’t the pandemic I fear is due to the low mortality rate. We don’t see vast amounts of people dying in the streets, hospitals are not overwhelmed, and funeral homes are not over-run. Granted in some places like NYC some of these things were seen, it was not the overall result around the United States. If these things were occurring the impact would have been far worse.

Unfortunately, we did have self-imposed government shutdowns lasting over what I would deem to be a long period. Initially the shutdowns along with a shelter in place were announced to be for fifteen days initially. Fifteen days turned into three months, and as I write this, some areas (including where I live) the shutdowns are being extended.

When this is over, this will likely be the biggest single disaster impacting the United States from an economic standpoint. We’ve already seen countless small businesses shut their doors permanently. Several large businesses that were already facing economic troubles also permanently closed or filed for bankruptcy protection to restructure.

Interestingly, it is known that when small businesses close for just ten days or longer, due to a disaster they tend to go out of business. Kind of makes you wonder doesn’t it?

HEMP or High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse

Starfish Prime (Credit: Defense Atomic Agency)

The next event that scares me is the use of a HEMP device, Super-EMP, or even a large-scale solar flare causing a geomagnetic storm that impacts our atmosphere. Any of these three events would essentially have the same impact on the United States, which could result in the complete collapse of the electrical grid.

How likely is it? Great question. Well, if you research the Carrington Event from 1859 it will provide you a glimpse into the potential of what could happen to our highly connected, electrified world. In addition, there have been similar albeit smaller events that have impacted telecommunications and the Canadian electrical grid.

In addition to this natural phenomenon one of the side effects of setting of a nuclear weapon is an Electromagnetic Pulse that can both temporarily or permanently damage electrical devices and the electrical grid. The scary part is all it would take is just one, well placed and well-timed explosion of a nuclear device in the atmosphere above the United States to impact the entire Continental U.S.

There has been evidence of again the Chinese developing a super-EMP weapon. I have been hearing of them working with and paying North Korea to develop them as far back as late 2001. More recently however evidence suggests that the Chinese have satellites that they can utilize to the same effect. This gives the Chinese plausible first strike capability to take out the entire United States in one shot.

The impact would be devastating. The entire electrical grid would immediately shut down. No running water, No TV, Radio, No internet, No Gas. Anything electrical based would grind to a sudden halt. But that is just the beginning.

It is estimated that it could take several years before the electrical grid could be repaired to full working capacity again.

Why it scares me? A large swath of the population isn’t expected to survive, and the chaos would begin almost immediately. Certainly, on the first or second night.

NOTE: The similarities between the Coronavirus and Starfish Prime detonation is not lost on me. 

Civil Unrest

Civil unrest on a wide scale throughout the country is already happening. The Country is divided in several ways and both outside and internal actors are further influencing the certain factions increasing that divide.

While the potential for civil unrest (or more unlikely Civil War) has existed for some time several recent factors had increased the odds for it happening. First, due to the pandemic and subsequent shutdowns millions of people have lost their jobs, can’t meet their monthly bills, are facing difficulties buying enough food to feed their families, and increased stress.

Add to that real and perceived beliefs around, political differences, decline in long-held American values, earning and wage gaps, socialism vs capitalism, all the kindling was there. All it needed was the spark to kick things off.

It could have been nearly anything, but that is what we got with the death of George Floyd. No matter where you stand on any of the issues his death never should have happened. Even if he was actively resisting arrest and a carotid choke hold was warranted, there is zero excuse to do it to the point of death. That aside, the outcome is civil unrest and the movement has clearly been high jacked to an agenda that goes beyond policing issues.

It quickly moved to rioting, looting and wanton destruction of not just businesses but now threatens the basic fabric and building blocks of a nation. While no nation is perfect and has its problems and needs correcting from time to time, the future the socialist left wants will surely make things worse if it occurs.

In the end, it is not really the civil unrest itself that worries me, but the potential state that might rise if the so-called Democratic-Socialists and Marxism wins. It will end badly as it always does.

So, these are the three scenarios that scare me. What scenario(s) or disasters scare you?

Ebola Virus - Major Issues Coming to Light on Containment

Source: CDC Ebola Virus

While I took some downtime for my birthday major things were going on in the world that I missed. One of these events surrounds some major developments regarding the containment of Ebloa or the lack there of.

Though current reports still suggest that the current Ebola Virus is not airborne, it is highly contagious requiring close contact to infected persons, bodies and other objects that have been contaminated with another infected persons bodily fluids.

With this being the case – the current Ebola Virus Epidemic IS spreading out of control and unchecked in parts of West Africa. The most significant development that came to light on August 11, 2014 is that WHO Confirms that patients in fact ARE being turned away from overflowing and taxed medical facilities.  

With this situation remaining unchecked, it will only be a matter of time before he virus spreads to other parts of Africa, the Mid-East, and potentially to Europe and the U.S.

More. Far more needs to be done as a global community to control the spread of infection.

Here is a brief excerpt from the WHO Report on Barriers to rapid containment of the Ebola Outbreak:

Lack of capacity makes infection control difficult

This lack of capacity makes standard containment measures, such as early detection and isolation of cases, contact tracing and monitoring, and rigorous procedures for infection control, difficult to implement. Though no vaccine and no proven curative treatment exist, implementation of these measures has successfully brought previous Ebola outbreaks under control.

The recent surge in the number of cases has stretched all capacities to the breaking point. Supplies of personal protective equipment and disinfectants are inadequate. The outbreak continues to outstrip diagnostic capacity, delaying the confirmation or exclusion of cases and impeding contact tracing.

Diagnostic capacity is especially important as the early symptoms of Ebola virus disease mimic those of many other diseases commonly seen in this region, including malaria, typhoid fever, and Lassa fever.

Some treatment facilities are overflowing; all beds are occupied and patients are being turned away. Many facilities lack reliable supplies of electricity and running water. Aid organizations, including Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders), which has provided the mainstay of clinical care, are exhausted.

If controls are not put in place soon (and it may be to late already) - the potential for a global crisis increases rapidly.

Ebola Virus - Why Has It Spread So Far, So Fast?

Source: CDC - Ebola Virus

The Ebola outbreak in the West African Countries of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone has so far caused Suspected Case Deaths: 961, with Suspected and Confirmed Case Count: 1779 as of this writing.

The spread of the virus has grown "out of control" and this state will likely remain this way for the next few weeks. Global Government agencies such as the CDC and NGO's alike are responding to stem the spread of the ebola virus. Though, several agencies are reporting that the current ebola virus is spreading beyond current efforts to contain it.

Why is it spreading so far so fast?

Part of the reason why ebola virus has spread so far so quickly has more to do with the cultural customs and beliefs in the areas where the ebola virus has occurred.

• First, is the distrust of western doctors and medicine. This is not so in every instance, but does play at least some role. 
• Another, as with the American citizen that travelled to Nigeria, after he became infected after his wife died of the disease, is a complete denial that they are infected. With an incubation period lasting as long as 21 days, some people are in denial they have become infected.
• Another reason is the mishandling of the dead. As with many other places in the world, people have customs and rituals dealing with the treatment of the dead. In this case, some family members clean the body for burial without the use of proper protective clothing. If I am not mistaken, it is also proper practice to burn everything, including the dead that are infected with ebola.
• Lastly, and perhaps the biggest contributing factor is having infected people "break" quarantine efforts. They either leave, or as in some cases have family members "break" them out of the facility.

Granted, these are not the ONLY factors in why the ebola virus is spreading, but do present unique challenges to stem the spread of the disease further.

As you probably know by now, this is the worst Ebola virus outbreak in history, and is also the first outbreak to occur in West Africa. This may also be considered another potential contributing factor in that the ebola virus had not directly occurred in this region of Africa in the past.

I recently wrote another article about Ebola Virus Facts and Information on my corporate blog. It is an excellent resource to share and includes information from the CDC, and WHO.

Since then the CDC has also shared an Ebola Virus Infographic that is good to have a look at.